Even If Morton Returns, Rays Need Pitching
The hope is that Charlie Morton elects to play in 2021 and the Rays can work out a deal for the upcoming season. If that happens, Tampa Bay still has some pitching needs for the upcoming season. Yes, there’s a need for more offensive production too, but for this exercise, we’re focused on the pitching side of things.
Part of the Rays need for 2021 is the uniqueness of what 2020 did, and part of it is the importance of having adequate depth in the organization to weather the type of injuries the Rays had last year, and the year prior.
One question for 2021 is: Can pitchers that worked 150 innings or more in 2019, and then close to half that in 2020, return to those 2019 levels without severe injury risk? It’s a question a lot of teams will have to ask.
Remember that in 2020, 12 different Rays players started a game (seven or eight could have been labeled starters vs openers) and in 2019 a total of 14 pitchers began a game with eight or nine of those being actual starters. So even without the unique circumstances for 2021, the Rays generally need depth.
If Morton is re-signed, here’s what the Rays have as their rotation for 2021:
Charlie Morton
Blake Snell
Tyler Glasnow
Ryan Yarbrough
Josh Fleming
That’s potentially a very good group, but with the injuries this past season to Yonny Chirinos, Brendan McKay and Jalen Beeks, the depth is certainly impacted.
Glasnow’s career high in innings is 155, when he made 30 appearances combined between Triple-A and the majors in 2017. This year he threw 85 plus innings including the postseason. Snell threw 80 or so innings between regular season and playoffs this year, and two years ago he threw 180 in 2019. Both had injuries in 2019 that limited their workload.
Morton has only once made more than 30 starts, and that was 2019 with the Rays. Yarbrough and Fleming have been durable, with Yarbrough’s high of 170.2 innings in 2019 (including playoffs), and Fleming went 149 innings plus the postseason that same year.
As we further explore the depth, Chirinos is out for most or all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the same could be said for Beeks, who could have played a number of roles. The same challenge exists for Colin Poche, who did not start, but could pitch multiple innings out of the pen.
So who right now, provides depth? Here’s a look at where the Rays stand (in alphabetical order):
Brent Honeywell — Is now healthy but has missed three straight seasons. The Rays would likely have an innings cap since his career high is 137 innings (plus playoffs in 2017).
Brendan McKay — Missed all of this year due to a shoulder injury and should be ready to return in the first half of 2021 after undergoing surgery. Worked a total of 123 innings in 2019, which is just shy of the 129 he pitched in his draft year of 2017 between college and Hudson Valley.
Shane McClanahan — Pitched 121 innings in 2019 plus the postseason, but also has made just four starts at the Double-A level or higher before making his MLB debut in the postseason out of the bullpen.
Trevor Richards — worked a total of 32 innings this year either with or without an opener. Richards pitched just over 140 innings in 2019, a career high for him.
Joe Ryan — Was the Rays minor league pitcher of the year in 2019, working a career high 123 innings. Ryan would have taken on an increased workload in 2020, but the pandemic prevented that. He has made three starts at Double-A or higher.
Aaron Slegers — emerged in different roles out of the bullpen this year, and did make one start, although generally he worked once through the order. Slegers worked between 145 and 156 innings every year between 2015 and 2017. However, 112 is his career high in the last three seasons.
If the Rays do seek additional depth, there are a number of ways to do so. One would be free agency. With a tremendous number of free agents (175 and counting), the Rays could find great value at a reasonable investment. Some of these pitchers may be someone with upside they can fix, which has been their specialty. That provides younger pitchers the chance to further develop for the long hall.
Another way of doing so is via trade. Glasnow and Yarbrough are examples of trades the franchise has made to improve the rotation. More than likely, anyone added via this route would be someone with long-term control on the cusp of the majors, so they can help this year, and beyond.
A third way of adding on is via a six-year minor league free agent. This could fit in the first category, but someone with perhaps less national attention that could be just as effective. Beeks, Chirinos and Poche could start the year on the 60-day IL, creating an obvious path to the majors for those seeking it. Having a trust of the Rays system and how they put pitchers in a position to succeed may lend itself to some unique opportunities.
Certainly other Rays minor league pitchers could emerge. Paul Campbell, Michael Plassmeyer, Tommy Romero, Kenny Rosenberg, and Drew Strotman other players who have performed well in high-A or double-A for the Rays, but all missed a full year of development time. It’s hard to predict their level of performance and endurance in 2021 after not pitching as extensively in 2020.
That’s why you shouldn’t be surprised to see additions in several buckets throughout the off-season, because they may be needed for 2021.
